Obamacare and the Layoff Bomb.

I will say this before I begin: I am not defending the Affordable Care Act in this blog post.  In general, I am not interested in defending one position or another in this blog.  I'm simply interested in distinguishing good arguments from bad ones.  If you are following the politicos on Twitter, you may have noticed the trending story about the 'Layoff Bomb'.  On October 31, Michelle Malkin of Twitchy.com predicted that President Obama's reelection would lead to businesses large and small making massive layoffs.  It would appear that she was right (Boeing, Pepsi, ING among many others, including small businesses have announced such immanent layoffs).  Further, there is no doubt that many of these come as a reaction to the reelection, and especially to the perceived consequences of Obamacare.  It is a massive phenomenon with many contributing factors, affecting many employers and employees.  So, for now I will limit my comments to small businesses.  I would like to point out that there is a difference between claiming that businesses are laying off employees as a result of Obamacare and claiming that Obamacare is forcing small businesses to lay off employees--the first is a matter of perception, the second of economic causation.  The first is most certainly true, but the second is a ridiculous claim (for now).  First, Obamacare has yet to take effect.  But more importantly, Obamacare will have different consequences for small businesses than it will for large businesses.  If you define a small business as less than 50 employees, then Obamacare will have no deleterious affect on any small business, since businesses with fewer than 50 employees are exempt from the employer responsibilities requirement.  Businesses with fewer than 50 employees make up between 93% and 96% of American businesses.  Thus, the businesses affected will be fewer than 7% (at most).  In addition, small businesses with fewer than 25 employees who opt into the system will receive subsidies to offset the costs of ensuring their employees--up to 35%, up to 50% after 2014.  In the end, certain businesses which are already providing insurance to their employees will actually save money.  All of this is stated in the bill itself, which you can read here.  Thus, Malkin was absolutely right, small businesses (and large ones) do seem to be making layoffs due to the reelection, and specifically our of fear that their businesses could be negatively affected.  In addition, and in general, there will be a tax increase for certain businesses--about a .9% increase for about 3% to 6%.  And I am generally wary of encouraging tax increases that do not affect me (it is always easy to say the other guy should pay for it).  But to claim that Obamacare is destroying small business is tantamount to claiming that Caspar the friendly ghost ate my homework--Caspar does not exist (yet) and even if he were to exist, he is a ghost and doesn't have a digestive system.