Thursday, October 29, 2015

Does Pew report suggest gun violence is down? Sort of...

Last Tuesday, Dana Loesch, political pundit and radio and television host, tweeted that gun homicides are down by 30%, citing a Pew report as evidence:

Her followers on twitter were excited to have actual statistical support to bolster their position against gun control, noting that liberal proponents of gun control don't do so well with data and statistics:

The problem is that the Pew report doesn't quite say this. Indeed, one might simply compare Loesch's statement with the title of the Pew report presented at the bottom of her own tweet: "Gun homicides steady after decline in '90s". It is true that the header above the graph specifically says: "Gun violence has declined since the '90s". However, even a brief glance at the actual numbers indicates the myopic lens through which Loesch read the report.

Notice, gun violence is not down merely 'since the '90s', the decline took place primarily in the '90s, and gun violence has largely stagnated since then. In itself, the decline is a good thing, to be sure. But, a curious reader of the report might wonder: 'What was so special about the '90s that led to this decline?" Politifact.org offers a few interesting possibilities. 

First, Bill Clinton was in office during the '90s, and signed two significant pieces of gun legislation, the Brady Bill and the Federal Assault Weapons Ban.


Second, the decline followed "the end of the crack epidemic", and, in this sense, this graph does not represent a decline at all, but a return to normal numbers (so to speak) after a sharp increase.
Regardless of the cause (and I am neither interested in taking a stance, nor properly qualified), using the report as evidence that there is no need to even discuss gun control measures is a fundamental misreading of the report altogether.

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